Russian Victory in Ukraine Could Overextend US, Paving the Way for Heightened Chinese Influence

A think group is raising the alarm over the obstruction of US military aid to Ukraine in Congress and Kyiv’s requests for additional assistance.

The analysts caution that a Russian win would signify more than just the end of Ukraine.

This would allow China to assert its dominance over a weaker US and come at an “astronomical” cost to US taxpayers in order to fund increased defense spending.

The Washington, DC-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) issued a warning that if Russia prevails, the US would have to send troops and stealth aircraft to Eastern Europe, which would put the US in a precarious position that would enable China to assert its claim to Taiwan and increase its influence.

In a detailed analysis released on Thursday, analysts stated that the US “has a much higher stake” in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s grueling, almost two-year conflict with Ukraine “than most people think.”

As Republicans in Congress are now threatening to do, the war analysts contended that cutting off Western aid to Ukraine abruptly “would likely lead sooner or later to the collapse of Ukraine’s ability to hold off the Russian military,” which would then allow Putin to seize power.

According to the war specialists, providing Western military assistance to Ukraine to help it hold the line against Russian soldiers would be “far more advantageous and cheaper” for the US than allowing Ukraine to lose the conflict.

President Joe Biden has accused Republicans in the US Congress of holding the money “hostage” in an attempt to “force through an extreme Republican partisan agenda” for the US-Mexico border. Republicans have been obstructing fresh aid to Ukraine.

While some Republicans claim that aiding Ukraine will result in tighter immigration policies and increased spending for border security, other right-wing politicians have said that further financial support for Ukraine is not something they would consider.

The ISW claims that if the US and Europe cut off all military help, a Russian invasion of all of Ukraine “is by no means impossible”.

“Such an outcome would bring a battered but triumphant Russian army right up to NATO’s border from the Black Sea to the Arctic Ocean,” according to the war analysts.

According to ISW, this would imply that in order to “deter and defend against a renewed Russian threat following a full Russian victory,” the US would have to send a “sizable portion” of its ground forces to Eastern Europe.

In addition, the think tank stated that since Russia may relocate air defenses right up to NATO’s border, the US would need to station a significant number of stealth aircraft in Europe.

“Building and maintaining those aircraft is intrinsically expensive, but challenges in manufacturing them rapidly will likely force the United States to make a terrible choice between keeping enough in Asia to defend Taiwan and its other Asian allies and deterring or defeating a Russian attack on a NATO ally,” ISW stated.

The war analysts cautioned that the project would be extremely expensive and might take a very long time.

According to the war specialists, this would weaken America’s ability to defend Taiwan in the event that China decided to invade.

“The requirement to commit a significant stealth aircraft fleet to Europe could badly degrade America’s ability to respond effectively to Chinese aggression against Taiwan since all Taiwan scenarios rely heavily on the same stealth aircraft that would be needed to defend Europe,” ISW stated.

The think tank stated, “The cost of these defensive measures would be astronomical and would likely be accompanied by a period of very high risk when US forces were not adequately prepared or postured to handle either Russia or China, let alone both together.”