A new study of politics says that the 2024 Senate election will be hard for Republican sitting Senator Josh Hawley. Even though Missouri tends to vote Republican, recent elections show that Democrats can do better in statewide races. This pattern can also be seen in places that lean Republican, like Kentucky and Mississippi.
The political scene in Missouri has been shifting. It has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2012, but Democrats have won several statewide races, most recently in 2018. Voters in Missouri turned down extreme views on topics like abortion, workers’ rights, and health care, which led to this change. People in Missouri often choose candidates from both parties based on how they feel about important topics rather than their party membership.
It looks like the Missouri Senate race will be very close. Democrat Lucas Kunce is running against Hawley. Kunce is known as a unique Democrat and is a Marine veteran who fights against unfair business practices. He has the backing of Missouri’s Labor Movement. His team raised more money than ever before, and early polls show that the race is likely to be close.
Low approval numbers have made Hawley’s time as a senator controversial. People don’t like what he says about the Iraq war, union rights, and soldiers’ health care. People have said that his actions, like blocking defense nominations and voting against healthcare for soldiers who were exposed to burn pits, show that he puts personal politics ahead of national security and the needs of military families. Another public poll from Morning Consult shows that Hawley doesn’t have as much support as Sens. Rick Scott of Florida and Ted Cruz of Texas.
Reports say that former President Donald Trump knows how weak Hawley is. People are going to be paying close attention to the Missouri Senate race because it could show a change in the political landscape of states that have generally leaned Republican.