Stormy and unsettled weather is expected to return to the Southwest from the Southern/Central Plains by the conclusion of the week, although it’s fire season to begin the week.
Tomorrow, a fire weather risk area will be defined that extends from West Texas to southeast New Mexico and into the Texas Panhandle. Warm, dry, and windy conditions will once again increase the risk of rapid wildfire spread tomorrow.
After tomorrow, however, the focus will shift to the middle and late parts of this week, with storms possibly starting on Tuesday.
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The RRFS predicts a few storms on Tuesday afternoon from eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas and Missouri. If this were to happen, it would be between storm systems with minimal shear and instability. Coverage will be intermittent at best, with a few storms anticipated to occur Tuesday afternoon. If trends continue, don’t be shocked if the marginal risk moves back north and west.
From there, the GFS forecasts a subtropical trough pushing into the Plains on Thursday/Friday. The Euro is a little less spectacular in terms of total system strength, but it is pretty similar in placement and timing, which is not bad for this price bracket.
Regardless of which model is true, the end result is most likely the same: showers and thunderstorms over the Central/Southern Plains on Thursday and Friday. This will most certainly be associated with severe weather, but it may be on the lower end of the scale. A lot is up in the air right now, but the signs of severe weather in March will be apparent.
After Friday, a cooler/calm pattern should emerge throughout the weekend.