For over three decades, Texas has been a Republican bastion. No Democrat has won a statewide election since 1994. However, the Republican-Democratic divide has narrowed in recent years.
Greg Abbott won the 2014 gubernatorial race, defeating Wendy Davis by more than 20 percentage points. By the 2022 gubernatorial election, Abbott’s margin of victory had been reduced to roughly 11 percentage points.
The margin in presidential elections has been significantly narrower. In 2012, Mitt Romney won Texas by around 16 points. Donald Trump won the state by 9 percentage points in 2016, but fewer than 6 percentage points in 2020.
Which Are the Reddest and Bluest Counties?
In recent cycles, Democrats’ support has been concentrated in metropolitan cities such as Austin, Houston, Dallas, and El Paso, as well as areas in South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Republicans have had substantial support in more rural areas, such as the Panhandle, West Texas, and East Texas.
KXAN determined the reddest and bluest counties by calculating the average margin of victory in each county based on gubernatorial election outcomes from 2018 and 2022, as well as presidential election results from 2016 and 2020.
According to this average, Roberts County, northeast of Amarillo, is the reddest in the state. Over the last four elections, Republican candidates have won by an average of 92.86 percentage points.
King County, located between Lubbock and Wichita Falls, is only behind, with an average Republican margin of victory of 91.11 percentage points.
Eighteen other counties have average Republican margins of 80 percent or more, while 45 have average margins of 70 percent or more. Parker County, located west of Fort Worth, is the most Republican-friendly county among those with over 100,000 registered voters. GOP candidates there win by an average of 66.86 percentage points.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Zavala County, southwest of San Antonio, has the biggest average Democratic margin of victory. Between 2016 and 2022, Democratic candidates won by an average of 42.64 percentage points.
Travis, Presidio, El Paso, and Webb are the four other counties where Democrats have won by more than 30 percentage points on average. Travis County, which includes Austin, has the most support for Democrats among counties with more than 100,000 registered voters, with an average margin of victory of 41.71 percentage points.
Which Counties are Closest?
Since 2016, four counties have been determined by fewer than five percentage points on average. The closest has been Frio County, southwest of San Antonio, where Democrats have won by an average margin of 0.18 percentage points.
The next closest county is LaSalle County, northeast of Laredo, where Republicans had an average margin of 1.59 percentage points, followed by Jim Wells County, west of Corpus Christi, with an average Republican advantage of 2.88 percentage points.
Several of the closest counties based on averages since 2014 have had major shifts in outcomes during the last several cycles.
Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by 0.83 percentage points in Hays County during the 2016 presidential election. This compares to the 2022 gubernatorial election when Beto O’Rourke defeated Greg Abbott by 11.02 percentage points.
Which Countries Have Witnessed the Greatest Changes?
KXAN analyzed results from the 2014, 2018, and 2022 gubernatorial elections, as well as the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, to calculate the average movement in each county across election cycles.
Since 2014, numerous counties, particularly in South Texas, have bolted to the right, while suburban counties have marched left.
The most drastic changes have occurred in Zapata, Kennedy, Foard, Starr, and Duval Counties. Zapata County moved 10.52 percentage points to the right in each election cycle, while Kennedy, Foard, Starr, and Duval all drifted rightward by more than 9 percentage points apiece.
In all, 180 of the state’s 254 counties have experienced an average shift toward the Republicans each cycle, while 75 have changed toward the Democrats.
Most prominent is Collin County, which includes Plano in the DFW Metroplex and has had an average leftward movement of 5.77 percentage points every election cycle. Williamson and Hays counties, both Austin suburbs, shifted to the left by more than 5 percentage points every cycle.
Texas has had an average 2.37% tilt to the Democrats every election cycle since 2014.